February 8, 2026

Assumptions have been the bane of human existence since the first time Adam built a shelter and miscalculated how much wind and rain would really be a problem. Mankind’s unique ability to observe and make predictions is a power which has been a key reason for our ongoing success. With that special ability comes a downside. Sometimes our observations are unable to account for all the relevant data. A native tribe predicts the movement of a herd only to discover that a new food source or flooded river has redirected them away from where they should have been. The bear that ran away the last five times has cubs this time and so attacks. The ability to account for variable and predict outcomes is wonderful but to predict perfectly we need to be able to account for all of the influences. This requires exhaustive knowledge and an exhaustive capacity to process that knowledge. These things are not available to mankind only to God. Man in his finitude is required to simplify variables and make a few unproven assumptions. Even with these flaws in the system some things can be reasonably well predicted. Sunrise times can be known within seconds; the patterns of earths movement make similar predictions possible in regard to the view of the sky at various times through the year. The ancient Egyptians famously gained great benefit from the regular flooding of the Nile. This success is a testament to the wisdom of God’s design. We are right to work hard to learn about the nature of reality and engage in behaviours that take the best advantage of the knowledge we gain.

There are a couple of downsides to this phenomenon. First as noted above sometimes we become overconfident and believe that our knowledge is greater than in fact it is. This leads to overconfidence and often to serious downfalls. We might think of the great depression or more recently the sub-prime mortgage fall. The titanic was believed to be beyond the ability of natural phenomenon to sink. Weather is a great contemporary example, meteorologists have become very good at looking at the Jet-stream, ocean currents, pressure systems and other variable to predict weather accurately within a few days. This is a considerable achievement however when attempts are made to go beyond days into weeks there are simply too many variables to account for and we are unable to predict weather with accuracy. A similar situation occurs in financial markets. Limited conditions can predict outcomes over short periods however planned economies famously fail to account for human behaviour and desire and lead to serious and life-threatening shortages while simultaneously huge wasteful surpluses in unneeded commodities. 

Human pride has led to many troubling situations. None greater than man’s belief that he is good enough smart enough disciplined enough to achieve all that he needs. There is only one hope for us in the world and that is Jesus. 

~ Kevin Cleary